REPORT. Catalan President believes it will be impossible to agree an independence referendum with the Spanish government, argues a process towards Catalan statehood can be started using ordinary elections. An account of some important issues on this process, by David Forniès*
Catalan President Artur Mas yesterday unveiled a plan that could lead to the establishment of a Catalan state in 2016 through two consecutive elections in one year and half. Mas announced this 17 days after some 1,8 million Catalans voted for independence in a November 9th non-binding referendum that had been blocked by the Spanish Constitutional Court.
This is the essential roadmap that Mas proposed yesterday, and some background -and future prospects- to better understand it:
1. A new, "plebiscite" election in 2015
Since the start of the current process in Catalonia, Mas has said he preferred to have a similar referendum to those held in Quebec in 1995 or Scotland in 2014. But the Spanish government has always said that voting on independence would be illegal, and has refused to discuss on that. Catalan government advisory body CATN said in 2013 that, in this case, an ordinary election to the Catalan Parliament should be turned into a de facto vote on independence.
2. Talks to agree on a single pro-independence list
In order to turn the next Catalan election into a plebiscite on independence, Mas wants political parties and civil society organizations to immediately start talks with the goal of agreeing a single pro-independence list. Mas said this list is aimed at obtaining the absolute majority. Only then, he argued, would it be clear that a democratic mandate exists to start the process towards statehood.
3. The list's makeup
In view of recent election results and opinion polls, it can be concluded that Mas's proposal needs the support from at least his CiU two-party federation -which is made up of liberal Democratic Convergence (CDC) and christian democratic Democratic Union (UDC)- plus social democratic Republican Left (ERC). (For more info on the Catalan political party system after 2012, read this.) But a very important fact is that the list should also be joined by "representatives of the civil society," according to Mas's words. The Catalan President believes that going beyond political parties is key to the success of his proposal.
4. Proposal could encounter resistance
Even if two main pro-independence civil society organizations Òmnium and ANC leaders yesterday supported Mas's plan, the President's proposal encounters resistance. On the one hand, ERC President Oriol Junqueras has repeatedly said he prefers not to have a single pro-independence list but several ones, which would run under a common manifesto commitment to declare independence after the vote. On the other hand, UDC President Josep Antoni Duran -who himself does not favor secession- argues a Catalan election should not be called before 2016. Nevertheless, ERC and UDC representatives this morning said Mas's speech was "positive" and talks can be held starting from it.
5. Fitting the election into the calendar
According to what Mas said yesterday, it is implied that the election should be held over the next six months. On the other side, little room exists for the vote to be held later, if it is not to coincide with other elections. Local elections are scheduled for May 2015, and Spanish Parliament elections should be held in December 2015 or before. If pro-independence parties wish to continue setting the pace of the self-determination process, then the "plebiscite" election on independence should be held in April 2015 at the latest.
6. What the prospects are for an absolute majority?
Single list advocates argue it would catalyse Catalan statehood supporters, an absolute majority being reachable. But opponents reply voters of one party could reject supporting a list including members of another party, and thus some pro-independence votes would be lost. Recent opinion polls say ERC and CiU could get each 31 to 38 MPs if they run in separate lists, the absolute majority being at 68 -thus, it could be on a knife's edge. Pro-independence democratic socialist CUP -which has already said it would not join Mas's unity list- could get an additional 6 MPs. But another opinion poll found that a common ERC-CDC list -without UDC- could just get 58 to 60 MPs, with some seats lost to CUP -which could then reach 8 MPs- and to other non pro-independence parties.
7. Negotiations leading to Catalan statehood
If the pro-indy unity list reaches an absolute majority, an 18-month transitional period would start, ending by the end of 2016. Right after the "plebiscite" election, the new Catalan Parliament should start "formal negotiations", Mas said, to "agree on the conditions of the constitution of the new state." Most likely these negotiations should include Catalonia, Spain and the EU.
8. Creating state structures
At the same time, the Catalan government should end preparations for "state structures" in order to guarantee an "effective transition" towards the new Catalan state. These "state structures," according to CATN, should include a tax agency, the social security, the judiciary, telecommunications, energy and water agencies, and foreign relations.
9. Constitution-making participatory process
Also over this 18-month time, a participatory process to "lay the foundations" of a Catalan Constitution would be opened. Citizens, civil society organizations and municipalities would be called to have a say in that process. The Constitution would then be set to be passed in the next Parliament term. And this leads us to the last stage.
10. Constituent election plus referendum
At the end of 2016, a Catalan constituent election would be called. On the same day, a referendum would also be held so that Catalans could vote "with full knowledge on the conditions of the birth of the Catalan state in the European and world context." This would mean Catalonia would be "exercising its sovereignty," Mas concluded.
+ 1: What could Spain do?
Up till now, the Spanish government -in the hands of conservative PP- has refused to agree not only to Catalan self-determination, but also to devolve more powers to Catalonia. Spain's Public Prosecutor filed last week criminal charges against Mas and two other members of the Catalan government over "possible crimes" regarding the holding of the November 9th vote on independence. There is little hope -and Mas acknowledged this yesterday- that a Catalonia-Spain deal could be reached under the current state of affairs.
In spite of this, opinion polls now predict significant changes in the makeup of the Spanish Parliament a year from now. New anti-capitalist party Podemos could get 21% to 28% of the votes, with the Socialist Party (PSOE) obtaining a further 20%-25% of the votes and United Left (IU) 4%-6%. All three parties -at different levels of intensity- say Spain should undergo a process for Constitutional reform -Podemos in fact says Spain should start a constitutional process from scratch.
Podemos, PSOE and IU, in addition to Catalan and Basque pro-independence and pro-sovereignty parties, could now get an absolute majority in the next Spanish election, which would still fall within the 18-month term that Mas yesterday proposed. It would thus not be impossible -at least in theory- that Catalan and Spanish institutions could reach a deal under those new conditions, one that would significantly increase Catalan powers within a united Spain.
But to this scenario two main objections can be posed. First, supporters of Catalan independence have now been holding massive demonstrations and mobilizations for 5 years. That sector of Catalan society, including their muscled pro-independence organizations, are not likely at all to give up on the goal for a Catalan independent state. According to the most recent survey by the Opinion Research Centre (CEO) of the Catalan Government, 45% of Catalans want full independence even if an alternative federal setup is offered to them. Many of those people already voted for independence on November 9th, and are mentally unplugged from Spain.
And second, the extent of the federal proposal that Podemos, PSOE and IU could offer to Catalonia is really unclear. Acknowledging that Catalonia has the right to decide its own future and to constitute itself as a distinct political subject -even if not fully independent from Spain- is paramount to many Catalans, even to some of them who would not support secession. It is far from clear that those three parties -especially PSOE- would agree to such a different setup of Spain's architecture, because it would mean splitting up the sovereignty of the Spanish people -a taboo idea in Spanish politics.
http://www.nationalia.info/en/news/2022