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October 20th, 2012 | #81 |
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"Deflation "... ? It seems the Fed's "QE" has done nothing but enable the "elites" to gather assets and front-run them.
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October 21st, 2012 | #82 |
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Fed analyst confirms consequences of latest "QE" policy--gross inflation
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Fed Just Guaranteed $6 Gas & $4000 Gold Link: http://www.wholesaledirectmetals.com...wsmaxHeadlines Written by Damon Geller Now that QE3 has arrived, it's more obvious than ever that a few powerful men have hijacked our economic, financial and political structure. And here's a news flash: They aren’t socialists or capitalists. They’re criminals. The latest round of stimulus policy by the head printer-in-chief, Ben Bernanke, and the Fed is stunning in its size (in that it has no limit), stunning in its time-frame (as there is none), and even more stunning in the lie behind what it’s designed to accomplish. The bottom line? The Fed has just guaranteed $6 gas and $4000 gold. Let me explain. In this latest round of “monetary stimulus,” the Fed will be buying $40 BILLION a month in MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) until the “labor market improves.” That is on top of the already large treasury purchases they make. That means, assuming the labor market doesn’t improve, the Fed will expand its balance from an already insane $2.8 trillion to an inconceivable $4 trillion by the end of 2013. Bank of America analysts are saying the Fed’s balance sheet may pass $5 trillion by the end of 2014 sending gold to $3550 and oil $190 a barrel. While that may sound insane, the simple math behind the US treasury’s debt projections also place gold at over $3800 as debt swells to over $28 trillion by 2018, so BofA’s projection of $3500/oz. at that time is right in the ballpark. So, how do you make sound wealth-preservation decisions in a world of fiscal illusion? It’s a tough question. Reggie Middleton answered it best recently; “You don’t have to an optimist or a pessimist, you have to be a realist.” In order to be a realist, you have to be able to look at real data and real information and then you simply have to use common sense. Numbers don’t lie, politicians do. I will help you with the mathematics of all this because that’s all it is. Then you can decide for yourself if you believe in math, or if you believe in magic. Let's start with a dose of cold, hard reality. It’s really tough to make good financial decisions when you’re being lied to. And you are being lied to. You are being lied to by our financial leaders. You are being lied to by their media. You can feel it. You can feel it when you listen to politicians and their promises on TV. You can feel it when you watch the government use scripted measures like CPI to gauge inflation that do not include food or energy, just so they can tell you there is none. You can see it in the policy decisions the powers-that-be come up with under the guise of “helping the people,” when in reality those policies are back-door bank bail-outs. You are being lied to about money and wealth protection. You are being led to financial slaughter by a pack of sociopaths at the Fed whose dual mandate is scripted as “keeping inflation in check and people employed,” but their policies say loud and clear that the dual mandate is instead to “punish savers and save too-big-to-fail banks.” So, what is the end result of the Fed's latest round of quantitative easing? Every month in 2013, the Fed will increase its balance sheet by $85 billion, consisting of $40 billion in MBS, and $45 billion in 10-30 year treasuries, or the natural monthly supply of longer-dated issuance. The Fed will therefore monetize roughly half of the US budget deficit in 2013. Putting it all together, the Fed's balance sheet will increase from just over $2.8 trillion currently, to $4 trillion on December 25, 2013. A total increase of $1.17 trillion. This is what the Fed's balance sheet will look like: And here is the price of gold relative to the Fed’s balance-sheet: As clear as day, these charts illustrate that QE3 is truly the gift that keeps on giving if you are a holder of gold. They call it “Quantitative Easing.” And this would be round three. The reason QE is like the gift that keeps on giving for a holder of gold is because it blatantly debases the US dollar. Allow me to illustrate: Round one (QE1) started November 25, 2008 and ended March 31, 2010. During that 17-month period, a gallon of gas rose from $1.75 to $2.75 and gold rose from $725/oz. to $1125/oz. QE2 was started Nov 3, 2010 and lasted seven months until June 30, 2011. During the seven months of QE2, gas prices rose from $2.80 to $3.60 and gold from $1325 to $1700. QE2 was also marked by massive global food inflation and global riots. QE2 ended June 30, and we have had no further ‘major’ balance sheet expansion until mid-September 2012. In the last few weeks leading up to QE3 and the week after, gold rose 15%. The proof is in the numbers. Math or Magic? Let’s crunch the numbers and do some math, so you can use some useful data to make sound decisions. During QE1 (17 months) gold rose 55% and gas rose 57%. During QE2 (7 months) gold rose 28% and gas rose 28.5%. Quite notably, your wealth in gold buys exactly the same amount of gas at the end of a QE period as it did at the beginning, but your USDs buy far less each time. I don’t think I really need to make the point that both gas and gold will rise in USD as QE3 really starts to kick in, do I? I think it would be much more challenging to try and figure out how much they will rise, as it is a given that they will. QE1 consisted of $1.7 trillion spent mostly on mortgage-backed securities, and it caused a 55% spike in the price of both gas and real money (gold) over 17 months. That’s an average of $100 billion per month. QE2 was $600 billion, spent buying US treasuries, and pushed both gold and gas 28% higher in seven months. That’s an average spend of $85 billion per month. So let’s do the math, because we know exactly how much the Fed will be spending this time, just not for how long (although one can assume it’ll be a long time). The numbers above tell me that roughly every $85 billion the Fed adds to its balance-sheet will cause a 2-3% rise in the price of gas and gold. If we know that the Fed is going to spend $85 billion a month ($40 billion in MBS purchases and the already $45 billion in treasuries), we can safely assume an approximate increase of over 20% per year in the price of both gas and gold as long as the Fed is adding to his balance sheet at that rate. Again, this latest round of QE-infinity has no spending limit and no time limit, much like the monetary cannon the European Central Bank shot in early September to try and save the deal over there. QE3 Will Not Improve Labor; It will Ruin The Economy This policy is complete insanity. It’s simple math puts gas prices in September, 2014 at 25-40% higher than in September, 2012 and well over $6. It puts gold in the $2350-$2500 range and past $1900 pretty quickly. It debases the US dollar significantly, again, and at a time when we need fiscal responsibility more than ever. But here’s the real insanity behind this kind of move and its perceived intentions: How does spending $40 billion a month buying toxic paper from banks even help the labor market anyway? How can the Fed even get away with another huge lie and distortion like this one? Not that I think it's a good idea to print money and replace debt for credit (as credit dies) to try and resuscitate capital markets. But I don’t understand why, if the Fed is going to spend money to try and help labor, they don’t invest $40 billion a month into the Small Business Association? That money is federally guaranteed and would improve the labor market a whole lot faster. I think I can answer my own question… because these policies aren’t really aimed at fixing the labor market or improving the real economy at all. These policies are designed to be bailouts for too-big-to-fail banks and to keep rates low so that the Fed can service $16 trillion in debt. This was a move that had complete panic all over it. It's likely to cause gold to go to $3500 an ounce and, for those who like risk, maybe Ben gets the Dow to 15,000. But if there are still no jobs, and a cup of coffee if $5, and it costs over $100 to fill your gas tank, who’s it really helping? Protecting Your Wealth from the Madness To actually achieve sound wealth protection at this point, you need to look for true diversification (as opposed to banker diversification), by removing some of your wealth from “the system.” You need to get a portion of your wealth out of the insolvent banking institutions that don’t pay you any yield anyway, and then you need to buy some real money. Some grass-fed, non-GMO, organic, real MONEY. The unprocessed kind. The kind that is not attached to all the political lies and corporate greed. Money free of debt and that can’t be printed by criminals. The kind that has outlasted every paper fiat currency ever invented by man for over 5000 years. In all honesty, if you can’t see the writing on the wall at this point in the game, and especially after round number QE3 of failed policy that does nothing for the real economy but blow up asset bubbles, you may never see it. And if you can’t use simple math to uncover the truths of the sleight-of-hand coming from the central-bank magicians, you may just be doomed to a life of fiscal frustration and hardship. "The greatest trick central bankers ever pulled was convincing the world that they work for the public and not for the banks." The Fed may work for the banks and not you, but your wealth exists to serve you, not them. Your wealth must outlast you and, hopefully, they’ll be some to pass to those you love. Your wealth does not exist to support a broken, criminally-run and insolvent system. If you presently do not own any gold, then you do not have the luxury of time. The foundation and thus the safety of our monetary, banking and financial systems has never been less sound. Never. The move we saw the Fed pull with QE3 is a clear and perfect example of that. While the media may try and convince you otherwise, I hope you have gained the ammunition to see the truth and make some decisions about how you will prepare for the inevitable math of the future. Again, you don’t have to be an optimist to make money, and you don’t have to be a pessimist to protect it. You need to be a realist.
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October 23rd, 2012 | #83 |
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Fed Chairman Won't Seek Third Term
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Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has told close friends he probably will not stand for a third term at the central bank even if President Barack Obama wins the Nov. 6 election, the New York Times reported. Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has already said he would not re-nominate Bernanke if he wins the presidency. Bernanke's term as chairman ends in January 2014. Bernanke, who was first appointed to run the U.S. central bank by former president George W. Bush and was given a second term by Obama, has declined to comment publicly on whether he would accept another four-year term. The Fed's unconventional efforts to spur growth have been criticized by many Republicans and some economists who argue that they threaten future inflation and abet profligate spending in Washington. The central bank has promised to keep interest rates near zero until at least mid-2015, but Bernanke told reporters in his last press conference that there was an internal consensus on the latest round of stimulus. "There is a consensus that even as the personnel change and so going forward, that this is the appropriate approach," he said last month. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8LN3SU20121023 |
October 23rd, 2012 | #84 |
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Hear the exact description of the FRB spoken by a chairman directly.
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Isn't it strange that we talk least about the things we think about most? We cannot allow the natural passions and prejudices of other peoples to lead our country to destruction. -Charles A. Lindbergh http://www.fff.org/freedom/0495c.asp |
October 23rd, 2012 | #85 |
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from the video
"Print our own money just like the Constitution says."
Article I, Section 8, Clause 5: The Kikes shall have the exclusive Power…To print Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures. |
October 27th, 2012 | #86 |
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Memory Lane
Patrick J. Buchanan:Crash of 2008--The Party's Over
Crash of 2008--The Party's Over By Patrick J. Buchanan The Crash of 2008, which is now wiping out trillions of dollars of our people's wealth, is, like the Crash of 1929, likely to mark the end of one era and the onset of another. The new era will see a more sober and much diminished America. The "Omnipower" and "Indispensable Nation" we heard about in all the hubris and braggadocio following our Cold War victory is history. Seizing on the crisis, the left says we are witnessing the failure of market economics, a failure of conservatism. This is nonsense. What we are witnessing is the collapse of Gordon Gekko ("Greed Is Good!")) capitalism. What we are witnessing is what happens to a prodigal nation that ignores history, and forgets and abandons the philosophy and principles that made it great. A true conservative cherishes prudence and believes in fiscal responsibility, balanced budgets and a self-reliant republic. He believes in saving for retirement and a rainy day, in deferred gratification, in not buying on credit what you cannot afford, in living within your means. Is that really what got Wall Street and us into this mess—that we followed too religiously the gospel of Robert Taft and Russell Kirk? "Government must save us!" cries the left, as ever. Yet, who got us into this mess if not the government—the Fed with its easy money, Bush with his profligate spending, and Congress and the SEC by liberating Wall Street and failing to step in and stop the drunken orgy? For years, we Americans have spent more than we earned. We save nothing. Credit card debt, consumer debt, auto debt, mortgage debt, corporate debt—all are at record levels. And with pensions and savings being wiped out, much of that debt will never be repaid. Our standard of living is inevitably going to fall. For foreigners will not forever buy our bonds or lend us more money if they rightly fear that they will be paid back, if at all, in cheaper dollars. We are going to have to learn to live again without our means. The party's over Up through World War II, we followed the Hamiltonian idea that America must remain economically independent of the world in order to remain politically independent. But this generation decided that was yesterday's bromide and we must march bravely forward into a Global Economy, where we all depend on one another. American companies morphed into "global companies" and moved plants and factories to Mexico, Asia, China and India, and we began buying more cheaply from abroad what we used to make at home: shoes, clothes, bikes, cars, radios, TVs, planes, computers. As the trade deficits began inexorably to rise to 6 percent of GDP, we began vast borrowing from abroad to continue buying from abroad. At home, propelled by tax cuts, war in Iraq and an explosion in social spending, surpluses vanished and deficits reappeared and began to rise. The dollar began to sink, and gold began to soar. Yet, still, the promises of the politicians come. Barack Obama will give us national health insurance and tax cuts for all but that 2 percent of the nation that already carries 50 percent of the federal income tax load. John McCain is going to cut taxes, expand the military, move NATO into Georgia and Ukraine, confront Russia and force Iran to stop enriching uranium or "bomb, bomb, bomb," with Joe Lieberman as wartime consigliere.. Who are we kidding? What we are witnessing today is how empires end.. The Last Superpower is unable to defend its borders, protect its currency, win its wars or balance its budget. Medicare and Social Security are headed for the cliff with unfunded liabilities in the tens of trillions of dollars. What we are witnessing today is nothing less than a Katrina-like failure of government, of our political class, and of democracy itself, casting a cloud over the viability and longevity of the system. Notice who is managing the crisis. Not our elected leaders. Nancy Pelosi says she had nothing to do with it. Congress is paralyzed and heading home. President Bush is nowhere to be seen. Hank Paulson of Goldman Sachs and Ben Bernanke of the Fed chose to bail out Bear Sterns but let Lehman go under. They decided to nationalize Fannie and Freddie at a cost to taxpayers of hundreds of billions, putting the U.S. government behind $5 trillion in mortgages. They decided to buy AIG with $85 billion rather than see the insurance giant sink beneath the waves. An unelected financial elite is now entrusted with the assignment of getting us out of a disaster into which an unelected financial elite plunged the nation. We are just spectators. What the Greatest Generation handed down to us—the richest, most powerful, most self-sufficient republic in history, with the highest standard of living any nation had ever achieved—the baby boomers, oblivious and self-indulgent to the end, have frittered away. COPYRIGHT CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC. http://www.vdare.com/buchanan/080918_crash.htm ================================================ (Greatest Generation ?) should have told FDR and his NYC cabal of perverted criminals to get to to Japan, and Germany ASAP or put them in jail. Epic Fail Fighting For Stalin, and screwing over the Chinese National's for Mao. http://jewishfaces.com/china.html
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Isn't it strange that we talk least about the things we think about most? We cannot allow the natural passions and prejudices of other peoples to lead our country to destruction. -Charles A. Lindbergh http://www.fff.org/freedom/0495c.asp |
November 6th, 2012 | #87 | |
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Congressman McFadden on the Federal Reserve Corporation Remarks in Congress, 1934 AN ASTOUNDING EXPOSURE
This link provides a lot of information about speeches by the Congressman about the Federal Reserve. As well as quotes from other Congressman and people from that time regarding the federal reserve.
Congressman Mcfadden was assassinated by poisoning, which is discussed at the bottom of the page in the link. http://home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html Quote:
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December 14th, 2012 | #88 |
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Jewce it baby, Jewce it
Why Central Banks Can't Let Up on Stimulus
By Jeff Cox | CNBC – 17 minutes ago It's a central bankers' world, and we're all just living in it. Entities such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in 2012 took control of global economies like never before. Based on current market and economic behavior it's likely to be years before anything changes. After all, how can central banks take their foot off the stimulus pedal when there's so much at stake? In all, 13 other central banks in the world have followed the Fed's lead and set interest rates at or near zero in an effort to keep the liquidity spigots open and prop up their ailing economies. Those 14 economies represent a staggering $65 trillion in combined equity and bond market capitalizations, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. As for the bond-buying programs -- aka quantitative easing -- that dovetail with the low interest rates, the U.S. central bank alone shortly will eclipse $3 trillion on its balance sheet and is expected to end 2013 north of $4 trillion in electronically created money. Globally, that figure is, well, a lot. "When you add up all the central banks in the world, it's going to be over $9 trillion," said Marc Doss, regional chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank. "That's like creating the second-largest economy in the world out of thin air." Indeed, central banking has become an economy onto itself, a multi-trillion-dollar empire that massages and manipulates markets, which respond to the slightest news out of the respective entities' policy making committees. And if you're looking for the off-ramp, a point at which the central banks let the free market to its own devices, don't hold your breath. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the central bank's Open Markets Committee said Wednesday that rates will remain near zero at least until unemployment drops to 6.5 percent and inflation rises to 2.5 percent. If current trends are any gauge, either occurrence is likely to take years. In the meantime, equity markets remain tethered to Fed policy, dropping in part on Wednesday's news over fears that the Fed isn't doing enough. In fact, otherwise bullish Bank of America strategists say the main risk to stocks next year is the economy improving significantly, as that might spur the Fed to dial down the extraordinary measures it is taking to keep the American growth engine purring. "The most obvious reason for the ongoing rally in risk assets is the largess of major central banks. Policy continues to be a major driver of risk appetite," Michael Hartnett, BofA's chief investment strategist, said in a report. "With so much investment flow predicated on QE-infinity, and the maintenance of zero interest rates, anything that disturbs the liquidity outlook is likely to increase volatility." "We worry that the strong performance of banks, value, (real estate investment trusts) and bonds and the underperformance of cash make bond and equity markets vulnerable to any upside growth surprises in (the first half of 2013), as this would likely lower liquidity expectations," he added. The result of such widely shared sentiment is an upside-down world for investors. Whereas those looking to put money to work in the equity markets could simply look at a company's fundamentals and price action then act accordingly, a world where aggressive central bank policy will be at play indefinitely and immeasurably changes the entire landscape. Yes, monetary policy always has been important to the markets, but not like this. "We have never seen investors so nervous after such a strong market. We would have expected greater enthusiasm," Deutsche Bank's strategists said in an analysis. "If the Fed were to leave (policy) alone and let markets decide, then equity markets would probably fall. But, as it is, if real investors can't predict which way markets will go, then they will stay on the sidelines." Gripe though they may, however, investors are not apt to swim against the tide. None of the major Wall Street houses is betting against the stock market in 2013, reasoning that equities will be pushed forward by a modestly strengthening economy and continued Fed accommodation. Hedge fund manager Blackrock is virtually alone in its assessment that Fed tightening actually could send money into equities - in a "dash for trash," the firm said - while most others believe central bank liquidity is key. JPMorgan Chase, for one, correctly anticipated that the Fed would tie its policy to specific economic targets - in part as an effort to counteract the political and fiscal mess in Washington. "This change in communications should further cement the view that rates won't be rising for a very long time. We think the first hike won't occur until late 2015, or possibly even later," JPMorgan's chief market strategist Thomas J. Lee said. "The continued gentle posture of monetary policy should keep financial conditions supportive, helping to offset some of the drag imposed by fiscal policy." The mindset has led managers dangerously up the ladder in risk, particularly in the high-yield area of fixed income. Though they saw outflows in November, junk bond mutual funds have seen assets under management grow 19 percent this year as investors grope for yield in a no-yield environment. Wells Fargo's Doss said he is afraid of high-yield in corporate debt but favors it in municipal bonds, and otherwise is putting focusing on risk in the equity and commodity markets. It's all part of the brave new jew central banking world. "We're in open-ended QE across the globe," Doss said. "I don't know what the end game is." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-ce...204737141.html |
December 14th, 2012 | #89 | |
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"Fed losing its grip on our expectations "
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December 16th, 2012 | #90 |
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You know, at some point this has to go exponential , the printing of money. It always has, historically . The only other alternative is to stop the expansion of the money supply, which slams the economy into a plunging depression .
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February 6th, 2013 | #91 | |
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Low Interest Rates Impoverish Savers
"The besieged consumer gets another whammy from a banking system that thrives on charging usurious fees, while paying you near zero on your saving accounts. With the execution of the Bernanke rescue strategy, the prospects of personal or consumer loans are virtually non-existent. In Helicopter Ben speak; "maintaining monetary accommodation" just does not filter down to the common man. "
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February 6th, 2013 | #92 |
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principal
"...our seniors must rely on the depletion of their principle for all of their living expenses. . ."
If they engage in crime due to low rates, maybe that is a "depletion of principle," or maybe it's a survival necessity. |
February 26th, 2013 | #93 | ||
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Bernanke Signals Continued Fed Support for Low Interest Rates
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February 28th, 2013 | #94 |
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How much worse can things get? At this point the decline has become so steep for J.C. Penney that Jim Cramer of CNBC is declaring that they are in "a true tailspin".
#3 In the United States today, a new car has become out of reach for most middle class Americans according to the 2013 Car Affordability Study... Looking to buy a new car, truck or crossover? You may find it more difficult to stretch the household budget than you expected, according to a new study that finds median-income families in only one major U.S. city actually can afford the typical new vehicle. The typical new vehicle is now more expensive than ever, averaging $30,500 in 2012, according to TrueCar.com data, and heading up again as makers curb the incentives that helped make their products more affordable during the recession when they were desperate for sales. According to the 2013 Car Affordability Study by Interest.com, only in Washington could the typical household swing the payments, the median income there running $86,680 a year. #4 The founder of Subway Restaurants, Fred Deluca, says that the recent tax increases are having a noticeable impact on his business... "The payroll tax is affecting sales. It's causing sales declines," he said, estimating a decline of about 2 percentage points off sales at his restaurants. "There are a lot of pressures on consumers," Deluca said, adding "I think this is on the permanent side, but I think business will adjust to it." Link: http://www.activistpost.com/2013/02/...igns-that.html
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Isn't it strange that we talk least about the things we think about most? We cannot allow the natural passions and prejudices of other peoples to lead our country to destruction. -Charles A. Lindbergh http://www.fff.org/freedom/0495c.asp Last edited by America First; March 2nd, 2013 at 05:30 PM. |
March 2nd, 2013 | #95 |
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News
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Isn't it strange that we talk least about the things we think about most? We cannot allow the natural passions and prejudices of other peoples to lead our country to destruction. -Charles A. Lindbergh http://www.fff.org/freedom/0495c.asp |
March 6th, 2013 | #96 |
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Isn't it strange that we talk least about the things we think about most? We cannot allow the natural passions and prejudices of other peoples to lead our country to destruction. -Charles A. Lindbergh http://www.fff.org/freedom/0495c.asp |
March 7th, 2013 | #97 |
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Is this quote true ?
Quote
SonofCastille 34 minutes ago Y'all see where the Royal Bank of Scotland crashed and 17 MILLION folks got shut out of the accounts?!? Unquote
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Isn't it strange that we talk least about the things we think about most? We cannot allow the natural passions and prejudices of other peoples to lead our country to destruction. -Charles A. Lindbergh http://www.fff.org/freedom/0495c.asp |
March 16th, 2013 | #98 | |
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Fed Official : Too Big To Fail Banks Need To Broken Up
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...92F09U20130316 |
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March 17th, 2013 | #99 |
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Staring Armageddon In The Face But Hiding It With Official Lies
Published on VDARE.com (http://www.vdare.com)
Home > February Jobs: Staring Armageddon In The Face But Hiding It With Official Lies -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- February Jobs: Staring Armageddon In The Face But Hiding It With Official Lies By Paul Craig Roberts Created 03/12/13 Topic: Off Topic [See Also: National Data| February Jobs: Immigrant Employment Rose FOUR TIMES FASTER Than Native-born Employment Over Past Year [1], by Edwin S. Rubenstein] According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy created 236,000 new jobs in February. If you believe that, I have a bridge in Brooklyn that I’ll let you have at a good price. Where are these alleged jobs? The BLS says 48,000 were created in construction. That is possible, considering that revenue-starved real estate developers are misreading the housing situation. [2] Then there are 23,700 new jobs in retail trade, which is hard to believe considering the absence of consumer income growth and the empty parking lots at shopping malls. The real puzzle is 20,800 jobs in motion picture and sound recording industries. This is the first time in the years that I have been following the jobs reports that there has been enough employment for me to even notice this category. The BLS lists 10,900 jobs in accounting and bookkeeping, which, as it is approaching income tax time, is probably correct; 21,000 jobs in temporary help and business support services; 39,000 jobs in health care and social assistance; and 18,800 jobs in the old standby—waitresses and bartenders. That leaves about 50,000 jobs sprinkled around the various categories, but not in numbers large enough to notice. The presstitute media attributed the drop in the headline unemployment rate (U3) to 7.7% from 7.9% to the happy jobs report. But Rex Nutting at Market Watch says that [3] the unemployment rate fell because 130,000 unemployed people who have been unable to find a job and became discouraged were dropped out of the U3 measure of unemployment. The official U6 measure which counts some discouraged workers shows an unemployment rate of 14.3%. Statistician John Williams’ measure, which counts all discouraged workers (people who have ceased looking for a job), is 23%. In other words, the real rate of unemployment is 2 to 3 times the reported rate. Nutting believes that the U3 unemployment rate has become too politicized to have any meaning. He suggests using instead the work force participation rate. This rate is falling substantially, reflecting the discouragement that occurs from inability to find jobs. John Williams (shadowstats.com [4]) says that distortions in seasonal factor adjustments overstate monthly payroll employment by about 100,000 jobs. The jobs data that is not seasonally adjusted shows about 1.5 million fewer jobs in the economy. In a recent communication, statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com [4]) reports that the rigged official annual rate of consumer inflation (CPI) of 1.6% is in fact, as measured by the official US government methodology of 1990, 9.2%. In other words, the rate of inflation is 5.75 times greater than the reported rate. If Williams is correct, the interest rate on bonds is extremely negative. Over the years the measure of inflation has been altered in two ways. One is the introduction of substitution for what formerly was a constant weighted basket of goods. In the former measure, if a price of an item in the basket (index) rose, the CPI rose by the weight of that item in the basket. In the substitution-based measure, if a price of an item in the basket goes up, the item is removed from the basket, and a cheaper item is put in its place. For example, if the price of New York strip steak rises, the new CPI will substitute the price of a cheaper cut. In this new measure, inflation is held down by measuring not a fixed standard of living but a declining standard of living. The other adjustment used to restrain the measure of inflation is to re-classify many price rises as “quality improvements.” Price rises declared to be quality improvements do not translate into a higher measure of inflation. In other words, if a product rises in price, the price increase or some portion of it can be assigned to improved quality, not to a rise in component or energy costs. As the incentive is to hold down the inflation measure in order to save money for the government on Social Security cost-of-living-adjustments, quality improvements are over-estimated. Consumers have to pay the higher prices, and as incomes, except for the 1 percent, are not growing, higher product prices, regardless of whether they are or are not quality improvements, mean a lower standard of living for the 99 percent. The understated new measure of inflation allows the government to show real GDP growth and thus the end of the December 2007 recession, and it allows the government to show in the latest report real retail sales again matching the pre-recession level. However, when measured correctly, as by statistician John Williams, the true picture of retail sales shows a steep decline from 2007 through 2009 and bottom bouncing since. The reason real retail sales cannot recover is that real average weekly earnings continues its downward path. Earlier in this new century, the lack of income growth for the bulk of the US population was masked by a rise in consumer debt. Americans borrowed to spend, and this kept the economy going until the point was reached that consumers had more debt than they could service. John Williams report of real average weekly earnings shows that Americans are taking home less purchasing power than they did in the 1960s and 1970s. Reflecting the dollar’s loss of purchasing power, the price of gold and silver in dollars has risen dramatically during the Bush and Obama regimes. For the last year or two the Federal Reserve and its dependent banks have operated to cap the price of gold at around $1,750. They do this by selling naked shorts in the paper speculative gold market. There are two gold markets. One is a market for physical possession by individuals and central banks. The rising demand in the physical bullion market points to a rising price for gold. The other market is the speculative paper market in which financial institutions bet on the future gold price. By placing large amounts of shorts, this market can be used to suppress price rises in the physical market. The Federal Reserve, which can print money without limit, can cover any losses on its agents’ paper contracts. It is important to the Federal Reserve’s low interest rate policy to suppress the bullion price. If the prices of gold and silver continue to rise relative to the US dollar, the Fed cannot keep the prices of bonds high and interest rates low. If the dollar is widely perceived to be declining in value in relation to gold, the price of dollar-denominated assets will also decline, including bonds. If the dollar loses value, the Fed loses control over interest rates, and the US financial bubble pops, with hell to pay. To forestall armageddon, the Fed and its dependent banks cap the price of gold. The Fed’s fix is temporary, and as the Fed continues to create ever more dollars, the price of gold will eventually escape the Fed’s control as will interest rates and inflation. The Fed has produced a perfect storm that could consume the US and perhaps the entire Western world. Dr. Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury for Economic Policy in the Reagan Administration. He was associate editor and columnist with the Wall Street Journal, columnist for Business Week, and the Scripps Howard News Service. He has had numerous university appointments. His latest book is The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the West. [5] The articles on VDARE.com are brought to you by the VDARE Foundation. We are supported by generous donations from our readers. Contributions are tax deductible and appreciated. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source URL: http://www.vdare.com/articles/starin...-official-lies Links: [1] http://www.vdare.com/articles/nation...native-born-em [2] http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/03/...ery-real/print [3] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...ing-2013-03-08 [4] http://shadowstats.com [5]
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March 20th, 2013 | #100 | |
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Fed projects 'grim' economic news
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