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Old April 7th, 2020 #1
Jerry Abbott
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: In the hills north of Hillsboro WV
Posts: 1,048
Default The predictable leftist-communist power grab has begun

There appear to have been more asymptomatic to mild cases of covid-19 than anyone previously imagined. As a result of all those unknown cases, herd immunity is beginning to materialize within the US population. The spread of the disease is no longer exponential, but appears to have passed the inflection point of a logistical curve. That is, the daily rate of new infections is past its maximum and has begun slowly to level off. The period during which lockdowns would have the most net value (versus the economy) is coming to an end, if it hasn't already.

However, now that it is too late for strong measures to have a salient effect on the course of events, certain people who, months ago, were downplaying the need for strong measures are now advocating them. One of them is Dr. Michael Ryan, the Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme. Tucker Carlson showed a video in which Ryan was advocating government polices of invading the homes of private citizens and forcibly removing family members infected with coronavirus.

Even if the advocates of a policy of invading families to remove members were entirely motivated by good intentions, which I doubt, what are the chances that it would be effective? In other words, what are the odds that the removal will be done in time to prevent the spread of the infection to the whole family? Zero. There is no chance at all that an invade-and-remove policy would prevent infection, simply because by the time the authorities act, what they ostensibly seek to prevent will already have happened.

What we are hearing now is the voice of a real-life version of Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars, hiding an evil purpose behind the façade of a good one. These commie leftists' expressions of concern for our health mask a grab at dictatorial power.


Michael Ryan even looks like a Communist Party bureaucrat, doesn't he? Straight out of the Soviet Politburo.

At 0h UTC on 7 April 2020, there were 367461 known cases of covid-19 in the United States, a rise of 30503 during the preceding 24 hours. The daily percentage increase in cases was 9.05%. The doubling time for cases was 8.00 days (192 hours). However, that daily percentage increase had been steadily in decline for a week, while the doubling time had been steadily growing longer. What that means is the curve was no longer on an exponential rise, but had damped into some other function form that rises more slowly.

At the same time, the number of cumulative coronavirus-related deaths in the United States was 10910, a rise of 1284 in the preceeding 24 hours. The daily percentage increase in coronavirus deaths was 13.3%, and the doubling time for deaths was 5.54 days (133 hours). But, again, the daily percentage rise was less than it had been, and the corresponding doubling time had grown longer.

Place, number of known cases, number of known deaths as of 0h UT 7 April 2020
(* US states included.)

United States, 367461, 10910
Spain, 136675, 13341
Italy, 132547, 16523
* New York, 130689, 4758
Germany, 103375, 1810
China, published data are false.
France, 74390, 8911
Iran, 60500, 3739
United Kingdom, 51608, 5373
* New Jersey, 41090, 1003
Turkey, 30217, 649
Switzerland, 21657, 765
Belgium, 20814, 1632
Netherlands, 18803, 1867
* Michigan, 17221, 727
Canada, 16653, 323
* Louisiana, 14867, 512
* Massachusetts, 13837, 260
* California, 13438, 319
* Pennsylvania, 12980, 162
* Florida, 12925, 236
Austria, 12297, 220
Brazil, 12056, 553
Portugal, 11730, 311
* Illinois, 11256, 274
South Korea, 10284, 186

Although the numbers are large, they probably are approaching their greatest magnitude. The data history is no longer well-fit by an exponentially rising curve, but they are very closely fit by a logistical curve. Here are two logistical curves, both of which fit the data for coronavirus-related deaths in the United States from 13 March 2020 to 7 April 2020.

D = 19563.13 − 19513.43387 / { 1 + (T/97.11727)^25.6407 }

D = 17030.789 / { 1 + 2.1611131e+12 exp(−0.29561221 T) }



Both logistical curves predict an ultimate total number of death slightly less than 20,000. So we've a ways to go, in terms of dying, but the time for measures such as those being proposed now by Dr. Ryan are long over. Anyone endorsing a policy of official home-invasions or child-seizures is either a power-grabbing leftist or is, at best, a politician trying to seem fair in the public eye while working a perfumed iniquity.
 
Old April 7th, 2020 #2
Jerry Abbott
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: In the hills north of Hillsboro WV
Posts: 1,048
Default The data history for US coronavirus-related deaths

Days into 2020, US covid-19 deaths

98, 10910
97, 9626
96, 8438
95, 7144
94, 6054
93, 4720
91, 3146
90, 2384
88, 1572
86, 929
85, 705
83, 414
81, 263
78, 108
77, 85
76, 68
75, 55
74, 48
73, 41

Sources: Wikipedia 1, Wikipedia 2
 
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