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Old October 7th, 2009 #61
Steve B
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Originally Posted by Alex Linder View Post
Ha, well, as long as you don't run into anybody who wants something you don't have, you'll be fine. Cuz the rest of us say gold does have an actual use: medium of exchange.
In a normal economic environment, yes, gold is a medium of exchange. Not a very good one but a medium of exchange nonetheless.

In a abby normal economic environment, like one where paper money isn't worth anything and the things you take for granted aren't there when you need them, you are going to find that the gold coins and little bars that you paid 1500 bucks an ounce for won't buy the same in return. If you can buy anything at all with it.
 
Old October 7th, 2009 #62
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Try thinking of gold like this. Take away the emotion, take away the fascination with shiny things, take away what you think it's worth. Just look at it from a logical perspective. What is gold? It's metal, it's heavy and has some uses in electronics and dentistry. That's pretty much it. Like paper money, it has no intrinsic value other than what you or the next guy thinks it's worth. And if the next guy doesn't think your gold is worth what you think it is then you're fucked. If the next guy thinks that the 1 ounce of gold coins you have is worth 20 pounds of potato's, then that's what it's worth. If the next guy thinks that the 1 ounce of gold that you paid 1500 bucks for is only worth a tank of gas then that's what it's worth.

It's a difficult concept to grasp because people have always held a fascination for this heavy, shiny, dentistry metal. But that's all it is, a hunk of metal. And in a severe economic world wide depression where people can't get enough food to eat your gold colored metal isn't going to be worth jack shit.
 
Old October 7th, 2009 #63
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...in a severe economic world wide depression where people can't get enough food to eat your gold colored metal isn't going to be worth jack shit.
It's not hard to think of scenarios where lead is much more valuable than gold.
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Old October 7th, 2009 #64
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It's not hard to think of scenarios where lead is much more valuable than gold.
There was a scene in H. G. Wells classic War of the Worlds where a guy(lets call him Alex Linder) is trying to buy his way onto a truck that is evacuating the city. Everyone is in a panic and Alex says, "I'll give you a 1000 dollars worth of gold for a seat on that truck". The driver(lets call him Steve B) says, "moneys no good anymore, Mack" and shoves him aside.

Not saying things could get that bad but it doesn't take much for boobus americanus to panic and there might come a point where, "moneys no good anymore". In which case the gold that Linder paid 1500 an ounce for could be worth little more than lead.
 
Old October 7th, 2009 #65
Rick Ronsavelle
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Above arguments against gold could be made against paper money, or any money.

There are stores of value, and then there are stores of value. MONEY IS THE MOST LIQUID FORM OF CAPITAL. It loses the least when you get rid of it. Liquidity, being in a strong cash/gold coin position, is always good. Steve is viewing gold as if it were illiquid. An example of illiquid assets are collectibles. Who will accept them during a crisis? You buy stuff like that, for pennies on the dollar. Let the other guy suffer the loss. Trying to get gas in barter for a third rate Picasso may indeed be difficult- art, not being liquid, is not money. In hard times, liquidity- flexibility, is your best friend.
Money is your best friend- precious metal coins.

If trading halts altogether, then I agree- the gold would be worthless, or hard to value. Survival supplies should be on hand- not just money.
 
Old October 8th, 2009 #66
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Now $1054.
 
Old October 8th, 2009 #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve B View Post
Try thinking of gold like this. Take away the emotion, take away the fascination with shiny things, take away what you think it's worth. Just look at it from a logical perspective. What is gold? It's metal, it's heavy and has some uses in electronics and dentistry. That's pretty much it. Like paper money, it has no intrinsic value other than what you or the next guy thinks it's worth.
And for all recorded history the next guy has thought gold and silver were worth quite a bit. That's not going to change. Hence gold is valuable. Gold has gravitas. Paper has balloonitas.

Quote:
And if the next guy doesn't think your gold is worth what you think it is then you're fucked. If the next guy thinks that the 1 ounce of gold coins you have is worth 20 pounds of potato's, then that's what it's worth. If the next guy thinks that the 1 ounce of gold that you paid 1500 bucks for is only worth a tank of gas then that's what it's worth.
Same could be said of sheep or guns or anything.

Quote:
It's a difficult concept to grasp because people have always held a fascination for this heavy, shiny, dentistry metal. But that's all it is, a hunk of metal. And in a severe economic world wide depression where people can't get enough food to eat your gold colored metal isn't going to be worth jack shit.
It will to the people who have food to sell.
 
Old October 8th, 2009 #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve B View Post
There was a scene in H. G. Wells classic War of the Worlds where a guy(lets call him Alex Linder) is trying to buy his way onto a truck that is evacuating the city. Everyone is in a panic and Alex says, "I'll give you a 1000 dollars worth of gold for a seat on that truck". The driver(lets call him Steve B) says, "moneys no good anymore, Mack" and shoves him aside.

Not saying things could get that bad but it doesn't take much for boobus americanus to panic and there might come a point where, "moneys no good anymore". In which case the gold that Linder paid 1500 an ounce for could be worth little more than lead.
Back in real life you can find, say, Southwest Airlines trying offering people (gold) to give up their seats on a flight. Soon enough they get takers. Of course, that's real life, not the movies.
 
Old October 8th, 2009 #69
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Alchemy you say ? (slightly unrelated)

Quote:
Gold synthesis from Mercury

Gold obtained by mining has copper and silver impurities. Gold of higher purity can be made through the photoneutron process:
Mercury 198 + 6.8MeV gamma ray 1 neutron + Mercury 197 (half-life 2.7 days Gold 197)
Quote:
Gold can currently be manufactured in a nuclear reactor by irradiation either of platinum or mercury. Since platinum is more expensive than gold, platinum is economically unsuitable as a raw material. Only the mercury isotope 196Hg, which occurs with a frequency of 0.15% in natural mercury, can be converted to gold by neutron capture, and following K+-decay into 197Au with slow neutrons.

Other mercury isotopes are converted when irradiated with slow neutrons into one another or formed mercury isotopes, which beta decay into thallium. Using fast neutrons, the mercury isotope 198Hg, which composes 9.97% of natural mercury, can be converted by splitting off a neutron and becoming 197Hg, which then disintegrates to stable gold.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthes...s_from_Mercury
So, once a white state is formed we develop/enhance these methods and buy the world back ?
 
Old October 20th, 2009 #70
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long gold discussion here, pros and antis. Note the way the neocon/illiberal antis simply cannot refrain from smears - goldbug, cultist, extremist, fringers - it is the only arrow in their quiver, for most of them

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/ar...-gold-bugs.php
 
Old October 20th, 2009 #71
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"Gold can currently be manufactured in a nuclear reactor by irradiation either of platinum or mercury"

How much does this cost? Remember the twilight zone epsiode, 100 years later their stolen gold was worthless.

http://www.imdb.com/video/cbs/vi726007833/
 
Old October 20th, 2009 #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Ronsavelle View Post
"Gold can currently be manufactured in a nuclear reactor by irradiation either of platinum or mercury"

How much does this cost? Remember the twilight zone epsiode, 100 years later their stolen gold was worthless.

http://www.imdb.com/video/cbs/vi726007833/
Nothing more than running a nuclear reactor for energy. Fact is you can do both in the same.

Now I don't think many countries would tolerate you doing so but basing the economy on something that can be manufactured so easily (relatively, considering technology) is batshit.

I'm absolutely certain some countries regularly use that process to fund illegal operations; No official money spent...

For instance I know for sure it's actually used to produce the gold in next-gen HDMI cables for TVs and computers. Cables cost a FORTUNE even if it's basically 'unnatural' gold.
 
Old October 21st, 2009 #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Ronsavelle View Post
"Gold can currently be manufactured in a nuclear reactor by irradiation either of platinum or mercury"
Oh , just $10,000's worth of electricity to synthesize picograms of gold .

The reactor will be worn out before they can even produce a gram .

Millions in electricity, billion dollar reactors worn out , dozens of generations come and gone to produce a few grams of gold . Not viable .

Rhodium is commercially produced in reactors ( takes about 15 years to radioactively cool , to be safe ) , yet Rhodium is still over $1500/ oz . Most is still mined and refined the old conventional way . Even when Rhodium was $10,000 / oz , very little came out of reactors.
Gold is many magnitudes more difficult to synthesize than Rhodium .

Last edited by Itz_molecular; October 21st, 2009 at 02:06 PM.
 
Old October 21st, 2009 #74
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And for all recorded history the next guy has thought gold and silver were worth quite a bit. That's not going to change. Hence gold is valuable. Gold has gravitas. Paper has balloonitas.

The real solution is DIVERSITY ........ gold , silver , lead , stored food , family, community .

One/some/all of those will give you the key in 99.999% of foreseeable events.

( Neutron bombs and planet collisions 0.001% , not covered )
 
Old October 21st, 2009 #75
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Originally Posted by Alex Linder View Post
long gold discussion here, pros and antis. Note the way the neocon/illiberal antis simply cannot refrain from smears - goldbug, cultist, extremist, fringers - it is the only arrow in their quiver, for most of them
They do that on every subject . When they can't win by reason or logic , they resort to emotion . YOU RACIST !

It's for the children .
 
Old October 22nd, 2009 #76
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We all know white America and the West are on the rocks, but WN disagree about the nature of the decline. Will it be a rapid collapse or a gradual decay? Precious metals like gold aren't the best investments for either viewpoint.

I used to be a big gold and silver person, preparing for the apocalypse (or at least rapid financial collapse), but I'm more wary now. It's a good saying, "You can't eat gold or silver." The retort I've been hearing is "you can't eat dollars or stocks either." Both are true. So why bother stashing either if you're worried about really hard times?

You know what you can eat? Ramen, with a bit of boiled rainwater. Instead of buying gold and silver periodically, I pick up a 12 pack of beef and a 12 pack of chicken ramen every time I'm at Wally world and stack them in a pantry closet. It also makes a lot of sense to stockpile ammo. Shotgun ammo is still relatively cheap. That's what survivalist mentalities should be doing. If you really think things are going to get bad fast, then people will be a lot happier to trade goods for shotgun ammo and ramen packets than shiny coins.

If you think societal decline will be gradual (as I do), then there are more attractive investments to make than gold or silver (like stocks in companies that actually produce valuable goods and services). It's worth having metals as investments to spread out your risk, and as the dollar inflates precious metals will certainly rise in price, but why even bother holding the physical metals? Just buy an ETF with an eTrade account.
 
Old October 22nd, 2009 #77
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Using some numbers most people who read about gold are familiar with:

Gold was fixed at $20 an ounce in the early 1900s ($35 later, after FDR stole from kwans in the '30s). It's about 2010 now and gold is about $1000 dollars.

I read everywhere that the historical return of the stock market is 12% per year, but I dunno about that... Let's be conservative and say it's 8%.

So, if you took $20 in the early 1900s and bought gold, you'd have $1000 today (inflation).

If you took $20 and invested in a basket of stocks on the market, you'd have: 1.08^100 * 20 ~= $44000. Even if gold goes to 10000 in the next year, it still loses v. a conservative market estimate.

Stocks and interest returning investments make more financial sense than gold if you think there will still be a market in five decades.

Guns, food and property make more sense than gold if you are expecting total system collapse soon.
 
Old October 22nd, 2009 #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trevor Dermott View Post
Gold was fixed at $20 an ounce in the early 1900s ($35 later, after FDR stole from kwans in the '30s). It's about 2010 now and gold is about $1000 dollars.

So, if you took $20 in the early 1900s and bought gold, you'd have $1000 today (inflation).
All true, but you can make far more with precious metals if you buy and sell instead of buy and hold.

Silver drops down around 10 - buy a ton. When it hits around 20, sell. When drops down again, buy again (reinvesting the profits). Repeat over and over again for years and you might even outperform Wall Street.





As a rule, you may want to avoid buying and selling on whole numbers as that seems to be when everyone else does.

Three advantages to dealing in metals over stocks:
  • It will NEVER go to zero as it ALWAYS has intrinsic value
  • It's hard to lose money if you know to buy low and sell high
  • The "underground" economy

You tend to get shit advice from "movement" figures. Edgar Streele- God bless him, great patriot, great all around guy. However, (I think) He said to buy the coins and don't sell until silver breaks $50.

Silver might not hit $50 in our lifetimes (again). In the meantime, you could be buying and selling and making a ton on the ups and downs of silver.

Also, I like the 100 oz bars the best BY FAR. The 1,000 oz is too big. I don't like dealing in little 10 oz and 1 oz denomination (too small to bother with). My own general rule (which I don't always follow): do NOT trade unless you can make at least $500 off the transaction. Otherwise, not worth your time (unless you really need the money, LOL).
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Last edited by H.B.; October 22nd, 2009 at 09:40 PM.
 
Old October 23rd, 2009 #79
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All true, but you can make far more with precious metals if you buy and sell instead of buy and hold.
My first thought after reading that was: you can also make far more with stocks if you buy and sell instead of buy and hold - it just depends on whether you can actually do that successfully! The majority of people who try to trade stocks instead of holding them will lose money (don't have a number on hand, but I recall reading the percentage is high).

But yes, I see the advantages to trading metals over stocks (like you say, metals in the long run can only go up - not true of any particular stock, but perhaps true for the market overall).

Trading/speculating is a whole different ballgame compared to investing, and typically the media think of them as synonyms. My previous posts here were regarding two types of people who are buying and holding gold for the long term, either because they're expecting imminent societal collapse or desire store-of-value slow appreciation. My argument is that going gaga for gold doesn't make much sense for either (sure, have a little, but don't bother having a giant vault of the stuff).

Generally the goldbugs are buying gold for the long term and will talk it up regardless of the economic situation. That's been my experience since I started paying attention in 2003. Maybe that's because it's been a nonstop bull market for gold in that time period, but I suspect not ( http://www.bearmarketinvestments.com...s-26-years-ago "We were gold bulls back then. And we were idiots. It was the end of the gold bull cycle, not the beginning. The gold price fell for the next 17 years.").

The goldbugs are useful not because they constantly hype gold, but because they constantly criticize the system. Ultimately, the desire for gold is a barometer for lack of faith in the financial system. The jewed system knows this, which is why central banks and masters of the universe like to artificially keep gold prices low to sustain the mass fantasy that everything's OK with the dollar.
 
Old October 23rd, 2009 #80
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You tend to get shit advice from "movement" figures. Edgar Streele- God bless him, great patriot, great all around guy. However, (I think) He said to buy the coins and don't sell until silver breaks $50.
I am also of the understanding that he took out an equity loan on his house/ranch to purchase more silver. Since I remember reading he did this a few years back I think this has worked out for him so far...

I think silver could go up a bit more, to $20 or even $25, but it will eventually suffer a minor drop when the inflation hype dies a bit in the coming months. Inflation is here and will get worse, but I don't think it will happen as fast as some fear - things never do. I can't remember which famous trader said something along the lines of, "If you have a prediction that something will happen in the market in a given time, double that time to get a better idea of how long it will actually take."
 
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